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Last quarter, I reviewed 47 pitch decks from Sub-Saharan African startups. They were raising from pre-seed to Series A. Half of them had the exact same market slide: one big number in billions, a circle graphic pulled from a Partech or Google/IFC report, and no explanation of how the founder gets from that continental figure to their actual business. 

It is an ecosystem problem. The accelerator templates most early-stage African founders use are hardwiring this mistake into decks from day one. 

The Number on Your Slide Is Not the Number Investors Use 

Every serious African venture capital fund rebuilds your Total Addressable Market (TAM) during diligence. We do it ourselves. So the slide is really about showing us your process. 

When I see a bottom-up market sizing build with labelled assumptions, I am not thinking great market. I am thinking: this founder will build financial models I can actually review. That is the real signal. 

Your TAM slide is an audition. It tells me whether you can be trusted with institutional capital. 

I will not pretend market sizing alone determines who gets funded. But I will tell you exactly where it kills deals: at the screening stage. A weak TAM slide does not get debated in an investment committee. An analyst filters it out before it ever reaches a partner. You lose the chance to have the decision made at all. 

Here are three things you can fix today.  

Why continental TAM figures destroy your African startup pitch deck 

When a founder puts "Africa's tech economy" as their market, they are telling me something they did not mean to say: they have not decided where they are actually building. 

Africa is not a market. It is 54 countries with different currencies, regulatory regimes, mobile money penetration rates, and consumer behaviours. The moment I see a continental figure, my next question is always the same: "Which country are you launching in, and what does the market look like there specifically?" If you hesitate, the number was a crutch. 

And the "if we capture just 1% of this market, this is an $X million" line? It sounds modest. The arithmetic is not. 

Here is the math. You claim a $300 billion TAM. You say you will capture 1% for your tech solution you are planning to sell to SME retailers. That is $3 billion in projected revenue. To hit $3 billion selling a $120/year product, you need 25 million paying customers. There are roughly 15 million informal retailers across all of Sub-Saharan Africa. You have just told me, with confidence, that you will sign up nearly double the total addressable customer base of the entire continent. That is a red flag. 

💡 Action Step: Open your pitch deck right now. If your market slide has one big number and a percentage you hope to capture, delete it. You are going to rebuild it from scratch.  

The Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Available Market (SAM), Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) framework built for African market realities 

The bottom-up approach is simple in theory: (number of customers) × (price per customer) × (your geography). But in African markets, each of those three variables is harder to define than most startup advice acknowledges. 

Here is how to build it correctly. Take a hypothetical company targeting the 15 million informal retailers across Sub-Saharan Africa, each paying $120 per year. That is a $1.8 billion TAM. Narrow to Nigeria and Kenya, roughly 2 million retailers with smartphones, and your SAM is $240 million. Then be honest about capturing 5% in three years. That gives you $12 million ARR. That math is defensible. An investor can stress-test it. That is the point. 

💡 Action Step: Write down three numbers today: your target customer count in your launch market, your expected annual revenue per customer, and a realistic capture rate for year one. Multiply them. That is your SOM. It should be the centrepiece of your slide.  

How to size markets in sectors with no Statista chart 

Operating in African markets means you will not always find clean third-party data for your sector. Investors know this. What they want to see is that you were resourceful enough to find credible proxies. 

Strong proxy sources include: 

Using these signals shows pattern recognition. It tells the investor you understand how to operate in environments where data is thin which is most of the environments you will operate in. 

💡 Action Step: Identify two proxy data sources for your market this week. Pull one relevant stat from the World Bank or your national statistics bureau. Cite them on your slide. 

Here is what a well-built market sizing slide actually buys you. 

It changes the investor conversation entirely. Instead of defending your number, you are discussing which assumptions are most sensitive, which geographies you expand into after launch, and what the model looks like at different retention rates. That is a due diligence conversation. It means the investor is already thinking about moving forward, not passing. 

I have put together a full deck breaking down this framework with worked examples. Download the Market Sizing 101 for African Startups here and rebuild your slide this week. 

Then share this with one founder in your circle who is still pitching "the $1 trillion opportunity." They need to hear this before their next investor meeting. 

That's all for today. As always, thank you for being an engaged reader. Let me know your thoughts on this issue. I read all your emails.

Until next time,

Jasiel

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The information contained in this newsletter is intended for discussion purposes only. This newsletter contains the current, good faith opinions of the author but not necessarily those of Accion Impact Management, LLC (“AIM”). The newsletter is meant for educational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any type.  The documents may contain forward-looking statements.  These are based upon a number of assumptions concerning future conditions that ultimately may prove to be inaccurate. Such forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties and may be affected by various factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements.  Any forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made and AIM assumes no duty to and does not undertake to update forward-looking statements. This newsletter is not an offer or a solicitation for the sale of a security nor shall there be any sale of a security in any jurisdiction where such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful. An investment with AIM involves a degree of risk, and may only be made pursuant to the respective offering documents and organizational materials governing such investment.