SDS 077: The Crowded Door Illusion
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In my career, from the M&A desks at Goldman Sachs in London to leading seed rounds here in Nairobi, I’ve seen one consistent, exhausting pattern: most people are fighting for space at the "Crowded Door."
Whether it’s 1,000 people applying for a single VP role or 100 fintechs pitching the same "all-in-one" app to the same three VCs, the Crowded Door has a 1% success rate. The math is brutal. It’s a commodity competition where you are judged on past credentials and surface-level metrics rather than future contribution.
Crowded door vs. Empty door
For the last decade, in Africa we’ve imported a Silicon Valley playbook that assumes a linear path: Seed → Series A → Series B → IPO or $500M Acquisition. But in our markets, where currency volatility is a feature, not a bug, and local stock exchanges lack tech depth, this "linear path" is often an illusion.
If you want to move from being an "applicant" for capital to a "partner" in value creation, here are three things to keep in mind as you engineer your exit:
1. The "Real Math" Problem
In 2026, the disconnect between "Paper Valuation" and "Cash-on-Cash Return" has reached a breaking point. If you raised at a 15x revenue multiple in 2021, and the Naira or Shilling has devalued by 40% since then, your "USD-denominated growth" might actually be a flatline in real terms. It is imperative to bridge the gap between your long-term ambition and the brutal reality of the macro environment you operate in. Ambition gets you through the door; math gets you out of it.
2. From "Growth at All Costs" to "Exit-Ready Units"
Strategic buyers today aren’t buying your "vision." They are buying proven unit economics that can survive a 50% currency swing. Every year, I review over 250 fintech decks. Most blur into a sea of sameness: repackaged ideas with no defining edge and no evidence of a "right to win."
The founders who stand out don’t just show a "hockey stick" graph. They show a "Resilience Ratio": how their margins hold up when the macro environment shifts, their LTV/CAC sustainability, and a clear plan for how they will continue to win as regional competition intensifies.
3. Engineering the Exit
Exits don't start at Series C; they are engineered at Seed. If you aren't thinking about who the five potential buyers are before you pick a lead investor for your round, you are gambling.
The Crowded Door Exit: Waiting until your Series B bridge is running out to hire a banker and "shop the company" to the usual suspects.
The Empty Door Exit: Spending 18 months building a value-add relationship with the Head of Strategy at a regional bank—not to ask for money, but to share macro insights and align your "rails" with their future needs.
The "Empty Door" is where 95% less competition exists because it requires more effort per opportunity. The choice of which door to walk through is yours.
My Two Pesewas
In 2026, the African tech ecosystem is finally maturing, but our exit strategies are still stuck in a Silicon Valley daydream. Most founders are fighting at the "Crowded Door" of venture funding and IPO fantasies, while ignoring the "Empty Door" of strategic engineering. If you aren’t building for resilience in the face of currency swings and shifting unit economics, you aren’t building an asset, you’re managing a liability.
In the next issue, I will break down the taxonomy of profiles you should be targeting if you want to build for an exit ten years from now.
And if you found this helpful, share it with a fellow founder who should be engineering their exits.
That's all for today. As always, thank you for being an engaged reader. Let me know your thoughts on this issue. I read all your emails.
Until next time,
Jasiel
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